Investing Reflections On India

Kulkarni Power Tools is in the business of manufacturing power tools for the housing, infrastructure and industrial sectors. The company reported growing revenues in the last five years but the operating profits don’t seem to have kept up – indicating declining operating margins.  It reported about 12cr in operating profits on revenues of about 90cr.  However, it employed an uncomfortably high debt load to accomplish this performance thereby increasing the financial risk in case of a business slowdown. The business is exposed to iron and steel price increases (raw materials) as well as the housing/construction cycles.  It is also vulnerable to a weakening INR since it’s a net importer and its high debt level (apart from its customer profile) exposes it to the risk of rising interest rates. Management don’t appear to have discussed the risks in this business fully or intelligently – management reluctance to honestly discuss their views of the business (risks as well as oppor

Inducto Steel is in the business of shipbreaking and selling scrap iron and steel. The company has reported erratic profitability over the last year including a spurt in revenues in the last financial year – reporting about 1cr of operating profits on revenues of 64cr. It operated with high levels of debt in relation to accounting net worth and earnings and used up significant cash in operations requiring large equity financing in 2007-08 (diluting former minority shareholders) and debt financing (increasing financial risk). The business is primarily dependent on the supply (and prices) of old ships and selling prices for iron and steel.  Both these factors are influenced by international market conditions – with shipping having more pronounced and persistent cycles.  Management are also engaged in real estate activities through joint ventures/partnerships as well as lending activities to other corporate entities.  There is no reason to believe they have any specialised

Anjani Synthetics operated in the textile industry and is in the business of manufacturing printed fabrics. The company has reported growing operating profits on growing revenues over the last five years – reporting 14cr of operating profits on 280cr of revenues in the last financial year. It employed an uncomfortably high debt load in relation to accounting net worth as well as earnings.  Moreover, it has used up significant amounts of cash in aggregate over the last five years (both operationally and for capital expenditure) requiring substantial additional financing including a large equity raising exercise in 2007.  Perhaps management may be considered shrewd for raising equity cheaply during the 2007 bull market – but this didn’t really help the former minority shareholder. The business is exposed to the risk of rising prices of cloth (principal input) as well as adverse foreign exchange movements on its imports of colour and chemicals.  These are in addition to the us

Interfit Techno is in the business of manufacturing stainless steel pipe fittings, ball valves etc. for the construction industry.  It generated 85% of its revenues from the Middle East. The company has reported marginal operating profits in last five years with a recent spurt in revenues and profits in the last couple of years – reporting about 3cr of operating profits on revenues of about 25cr.  It operated with a moderate debt load. The company, however, had accumulated losses over the last ten years – a former BIFR case - and it is only on its way to working itself out of it.  This is a serious adverse point against the competence of management in this business.  Minority shareholders need to convince themselves that the underlying causes of poor past performance have been remedied for good rather than covered up by a temporary spurt in business activity. Moreover, it generated negative free cash flows in aggregate over the last five years primarily as a result of large

Natraj Proteins is in the business of manufacturing soy products – primarily de-oiled cakes and soya refined oil. The company has reported stable operating profits on similarly stable revenues – reporting about 5cr of operating profits on revenues of about 190cr in the last financial year using a moderate debt load. It is primarily exposed to the risk of unpredictable monsoons affecting soy seed availability and prices, which constitutes its major raw material cost.  It is also exposed to the risk of a strengthening INR against US$ since it generates sizeable export revenues in US$.  It is also dependent on the specific risk of capacity constraints on the Indian Railways, impacting its despatch timelines. Management haven’t paid dividends in the last five years presumably to pay down its external debt.  This may be justified since it reduces financial risk to equity shareholders – Now that the debt load is moderate, it remains to be seen if they will initiate dividends in th

NGL Fine Chem operates in the pharmaceutical industry and is in the business of manufacturing bulk drugs and finished dosages. The company has reported stable operating profits on rising revenues over the last five years indicating a bit of margin compression during that period.  It reported operating profits of around 5cr on revenues of about 35cr in the last financial year.  It generated this using moderate debt. The company, however, has also reported negative free cash flows (operating – investing cash flows) in aggregate over the last five years requiring additional debt to finance the capital expenditure.  It would need to generate commensurate future profits to justify the excess capital expenditure. The business is primarily exposed to the risk of heavy competition in the fragmented generics market.  It is also export-dependent with a concentration of sales to Africa – exposing to foreign exchange rate risks.  In addition, it is also exposed to risks of a narrow pro

Vijay Solvex is in the business of manufacturing edible oils – primarily mustard oil under ‘SCOOTER’ brand.  It also operates in the ceramics and wind power industries (in an insignificant manner). The company has reported reasonably stable operating profits and revenues over the last five years – reporting about 11cr in operating profits on 600cr of revenues in the last financial year.  However, it operated with an excessive debt load and has suffered volatile operating cash flows as a result over the last five years. The business is exposed to the risks of weak harvests, lack of seeds and acreage in the domestic market, and commodity price fluctuations and (raw materials) as well as severe competition this highly fragmented industry resulting in thin profit margins.  This is worsened by government reduction in import oil duties since 2008 resulting in heavier international competition.   Moreover, customers are very price-sensitive resulting in a lack of pricing power when

Sri Lakshmi Saraswathi is in the business of manufacturing yarn used for making woven and knitted fabrics. The company has reported reasonable operating profitability (for a textile business) over the last five years including a spurt in recent performance with operating profits of 14cr on revenues of about 100cr.  It generated this performance, however, with slightly uncomfortable debt levels (though manageable if the recent performance continues) in relation to accounting net worth.  The business is exposed to myriad problems of rising cotton prices, heavy government regulations and frequent arbitrary intrusion through implementation of the ‘quota’ system for exports of yarn as well as cotton (raw material) impacting their prices (usually adversely), persistent oversupply of yarn capacity in Tamil Nadu as compared to fabric capacity (resulting in greater bargaining power for customers), power shortages, wage increases, foreign exchange rate risks on exports, etc. M

KEW Industries is in the business of manufacturing shell body, auto components and other steel products for the defence and automobile industries. The company reported stable operating profits on similarly stable revenue over the last five years with a spurt in revenues in the last financial year – reporting about 11cr of operating profits on about 100cr of revenues.  It employed moderate debt in relation to accounting net worth to accomplish the performance. The company has, however, generated negative free cash flows in the last five years (a combination of operating cash outflows and capital expenditure)  requiring additional equity and debt financing – thereby diluting former minority shareholders and increasing the financial risk of their investments. The business is primarily exposed to price rises in steel (principal raw material).  It is also exposed to significant power shortages and persistent labour wage rises. Predictably, management haven’t declared divid

Fenoplast is in the business of manufacturing PVC Leather cloth for the automobile industry and PVC Film for the pharmaceutical industry.  It is also attempting to expand its product range to visual packaging (garments, electronic hardware etc.) and the leather footwear segments along with other areas. The company has reported consistent growth in revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting almost 15cr in operating profits on revenues of almost 180cr. However, it employed about 50cr in debt financing to generate the above results, which appears uncomfortable and puts the company in a vulnerable position – particularly in the event of a rising interest-rate environment and/or economic slowdown The business is exposed to the risks of rising global petrol prices (raw material) and its fortunes are tied into those of the automobile and pharmaceutical industries – which are, in turn, exposed to the risks of high interest rates, excessive competition et

Cheviot is in the business of manufacturing jute sacking products for packaging (e.g. food grains, sugar etc.) and selling of jute yarn to domestic and export markets. The company has reported stable revenues and profits in the last five years apart from the last financial year, which was abnormally good as a result of higher jute yarn realisations in overseas markets on the back of short supply that lasted only the first six months of the last financial year.   The company has reported average operating profits of about 28cr on revenues of about 180cr in the last five years. It generated the above results with no net debt and owned liquid securities approximating 100cr in market value as at 31 st March, 2011. The business is primarily exposed to the risks of cheap imports from Bangladesh and removal of favourable government policies on jute packaging requirements (due to the industry’s large labour force) because of its high price relative to alternative packaging mate

Austin Engineering Company (AEC) is in the business of manufacturing bearings for use in various basic industries such as automotive, defense, steel, cement, sugar, paper, agro-machinery etc. AEC has been operating in this industry for the last 30+ years and has an established brand name (‘AECL’) in the domestic bearing market with a wide distribution network and an established customer base. The company has reported reasonably stable operating profits on similarly stable revenues over the last five years barring the last financial year when it reported depressed operating profits of 6cr on revenues of about 80cr.   Previously, it reported average operating profits of about 12cr in the last five years.   It employed minimal net debt (4cr) to generate these results.   Due to the nature of its business, which requires relatively high stocking of inventory, the company has to invest in its working capital that negatively impacts its operating cash flows – but not too signif