Investing Reflections On India

Alka Securities operates in the brokerage business – offering brokerage services and trading in commodities and stocks.  Its balance sheet revealed about 10cr in working capital and 4-5cr of liquid investments financed by 5cr of loans. The company currently has investigations initiated against it by SEBI on allegations of circular trading in shares in 2009, which is pending resolution.  Meanwhile, the company is barred from accessing capital markets, approaching new customers and raising new finance.  The company has lost its existing clients through a period of low retail client participation and the brokerage revenue has shown a consistent decline over the recent past – with no revenue and net losses in the latest quarter (Sep, 2011). Although the company claims innocence, the investigation may be protracted over an extended time period and even a favourable judgment wouldn’t guarantee a restoration of former profits.  Moreover, its trading activities are inherently un

National Steel is in the business of manufacturing steel sheets/coils/strips etc. The company has reported erratic operating profits on reasonably stable revenues – generating 134cr in operating profits on revenues of about 2,550cr in the last financial year while employing a relatively high net debt of about 265cr, considering the nature of its business. The business requires heavy working capital expenditure resulting in a heavy hit to operating cash flows and is exposed to the risks of import substitutes, heavy competition including from foreign players established in India, raw material price spikes, and sharp business cycles resulting in poor revenues and profits during recessionary times. Management have not declared any dividends in any of the last five years presumably as a result of the erratic profitability mentioned above.   This doesn’t appear to be initiated any time soon unless the business generates consistent profitability, which appears speculative at th

Digjam is in the business of manufacturing of Worsted Fabrics and clothes made from wool. The company has reported erratic revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting about 8cr of operating profits on revenues of about 80cr.   However, it operated with a high debt load of about 70cr and has only a marginal net worth as a result of substantial negative reserves. The company is a former BIFR case where its external loans were restructured as a result of financial difficulties and heavy losses.   It is exposed to wool price spikes (imported from Australia) and also to adverse currency exchange rate movements since about 50% of its revenues arise out of exports.   As a result of the dismal financial position and past financial performance, management haven’t declared dividends in any of the past five years and don’t seem likely to initiate them any time soon unless the financial performance improves drastically from here – however, this appears specul

Cybele Industries is a manufacturer of cables – it supplies all types of cables to various industry segments including power cord, power cable, railway cables etc.   The company has   not generated any operating profits in the last five years – losing about 30 lacs on revenues of 56 lacs in the last financial year.   It didn’t have much debt but had negative profit reserves eating into its net worth. The company lost its equity and was referred to the BIFR and the business is subject to heavy competition from the unorganised sector. Needless to say, management haven’t declared any dividends in any of the last five years as a result of the poor financial performance. Any turnaround possibility in the business appears to be speculative at this point in time.

Orient Beverages is in the business of supplying ‘Bisleri’ branded mineral water.  It is also engaged in real estate activities. The company has reported no growth in revenues but reported consistent net profits (including rental income – see below) over the last five years.  It reported a net profit of 1cr on revenues of 13cr in the last financial year.  It operated with a relatively high net debt load of 5cr (as at 30 th September 2010). The mineral water business has been on a declining trend and is exposed to further deterioration of revenues as a result of slowing demand for its products with no real prospect of a turnaround.  It has been a victim of labour unrest at its plants and there doesn’t appear to be a reason why this wouldn’t happen again in the future.  It has also veered away from its core business and into real estate with currently one major rental customer (United Credit) generating its rental income – this would require a different assessment of its business pr

Metrochem Industries is currently engaged in the business of real estate activities. It formerly owned a dyes and intermediates division, which was demerged from the company in the last financial year.   The proceeds from the demerger are currently deployed in real estate activities with the bulk of it tied up in advances for construction etc. Therefore, the past record of profitability is irrelevant to assessing future business prospects.   It operated with a net cash position of about 30cr (as at 31 st March, 2010). The business is exposed to the risks of the real estate industry including construction material price rises, low availability of land for construction, high competition, vulnerability to economic downturns, increasing customer bargaining power (as a result of greater information availability etc.), greater government regulations on real estate activities etc. The lack of a decent track record in real estate activities would prevent the formation of further sensible ju