Investing Reflections On India

Ponni Sugars operates in the sugar industry producing sugar from sugarcane. The company has access to relatively low cost cane supplies that provides it with some buffer during the industry’s persistent cyclical downturns. The company has reported moderate growth in revenues over the last five years but operating profits (and losses) have been erratic.  It reported 15cr of operating profits on revenues of about 270cr under depressed operating conditions (see below).  It operated with a moderate net debt load of about 15cr but this is set to increase substantially over the next few years (see below). The company intends to invest 110cr in increasing capacity via debt funding in 2012, which may increase its financial risk profile.   It also intends to invest heavily in a power co-generation project.  These additional capital expenditures will reduce free cash flows, at least over the medium term. The business is exposed to the myriad problems of the sugar industry.  Su

The company operates in the textile industry – processing and selling fabrics.  It focuses on heritage and craft fabrics and uses dyes/plain fabrics to create printed fabrics.  The company has reported very modest growth in revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting 4cr of operating profits on revenues of 36cr in the last financial year. It employed no net debt in financing its operations and held about 9cr in liquid investments, primarily in equity mutual funds. The industry is blighted by government policies that work against domestic players such as propping up of ‘zombie’ units (to preserve employment) and export restrictions on cotton yarn and other related products.  The company is forced to import fabrics due to the lack of domestic supplies, resulting in exposure to a weakening INR.  Moreover, the US and Europe account for over 60% of Indian textile exports, resulting in substantial diminution in the industry’s overall revenue as a result

Jetking Infotrain operates in the IT education industry, providing training solutions for hardware and network professionals. The company has over 100 centres throughout the country and has partnerships with IBM for training material, WIPRO for recruitment and various colleges for training students.  It aims to adjust its curriculum according to demand and hence, focuses on recruiter requirements when drafting its courses. The company has reported declining revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting about 10cr of operating profits on revenues of about 40cr in the last financial year.  It employed no net debt in its operations and had liquid assets amounting to about 18cr as at 31 st March, 2011. The business is subject to the risks of rapidly changing technologies such as cloud computing, which question the need for extensive hardware/network systems.  Therefore, the company has to always be on the watch to update its curriculum, which increases

Sandur Manganese is in the business of mining manganese and iron ore for eventual use in manufacturing steel. The company reported good growth in revenues and operating profits in the last five years – reporting 140cr of operating profits on revenues of about 350cr in the last financial year.  It employed no debt in its operations and had sizeable liquid assets of over 100cr as at 31 st March 2011.  This financial position, however, may change significantly over the next few years as a result of management’s expansion plans (see below). The company is expected to incur heavy capital expenditure in the next few years (see below), which will have an impact on future free cash flows for investors. The business operates in an industry that has high power requirements, which causes operational problems in a power-deficit country.  The business is exposed to the risks of periodic oversupply of ore in the industry (as currently with manganese ore) where there are few outlets f

Sudal Industries is in the business of manufacturing aluminium extrusions, which h are used in several basic industries such as construction, buses/trucks, power, electrical, defence, railways, infrastructure, packaging etc. with new applications still being discovered.  Moreover, aluminium penetration in the Indian market is very low by world standards (like a lot of other products) indicating potential for a lot of future growth. The company reported a recent spurt in revenues and operating profits of 10cr and 110cr respectively.  It employed moderate debt of 12cr as at 31 st March 2011 but this is set to increase substantially over the next few years as a result of capacity expansion plans (see below). The business is exposed to rising aluminium prices and is subject to the general economic cycle. Management have planned large capital expansion projects with capital expenditure equivalent to about 60% of current resources planned for next year alone.  Needless to say

Hyderabad Industries is in the business of manufacturing fibre cement sheets and thermal insulation materials. It owns the prominent ‘Charminar’ brand and is a market leader in its industry with 20%+ market share. The company has reported good growth in revenues in the last five years as a result of capacity additions but operating margins have taken a hit in the last year due to overcapacity in the industry (see below).  It reported 88cr of operating profits on 725cr of revenues in the last financial year.  The company employed only moderate debt in financing its operations despite the heavy capacity additions in the industry, which is a point in favour of the company’s strong cash flows and management competence. The business is exposed to the risk of substitutes becoming economically viable such as GI corrugated sheets (steel-based).  The business is dependent on rural spending power and there is little pricing power within the industry to pass on increasing input cos

National Peroxide is in the business of manufacturing hydrogen peroxide – which is used primarily in the paper industry. The company is the leader in the industry, which exhibits growth of 7% p.a.  It plans heavy capital expenditure in the next few years to ramp up capacity and remain competitive. The company has reported good growth in revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting 90cr of operating profits on revenues of 180cr in the last financial year. It employed no net debt and held about 21cr of liquid investments largely in an equity mutual fund. The fortunes of this business is tied to the paper industry, which faces its own problems such as moves to a ‘paperless’ world, consolidation of capacities etc. It is also dependent on natural gas prices, which is expected to rise substantially from 2014 (based on current spot prices) when the company’s current fixed price contract with Petronet LNG expires. The industry is also blighted by surpl

Vikram Thermo operates in the pharmaceutical industry and manufactures excipients i.e. inactive drug coating. The company owns the relatively popular ‘DrugCoat’ brand and has a reasonably prominent customer base. The company has reported consistent growth in revenues and profits over the last five years – reporting about 6cr of operating profits on about 30cr of revenues in the last twelve months.  It employed minimal debt in financing its operations. The company did report negative reserves about a decade ago as a result of accumulated losses.  This is largely irrelevant to the business as of today but may be a factor for consideration in case there appear to be indications of aggressive financial policies (e.g. taking on greater debt financing for expansions etc.), which isn’t the case at present. It is exposed to a lot of competition in the generics field (although somewhat mitigated by its brand).  It is also subject to the risk of crude oil price increases since

Premier Explosives manufactures industrial explosives, detonators and propellants (defence). The company supplies its products to all major mining companies and to the ministry of defence. The company has reported moderate growth in revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting 17cr of operating profits on revenues of 94cr in the last financial year.  It employed minimal net debt in its operations. The business prospects are tied to the fortunes of the mining/construction industries, which are subject to the economic cycles.  Moreover, long monsoons are adverse for detonator sales.  It is also subject to the risk of more stringent defence ministry requirements.  Management have written off 8cr on joint venture investments in Turkey and Georgia, which is a cause for concern – but there don’t appear to be other questionable investments at present.

ABC Bearings operates in the automobile industry and manufactures ball and roller bearings. It has a technical collaboration with NSK Japan in manufacturing its products. The company has reported stable revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting 42cr of operating profits on revenues of 200cr in the last financial year.  It employed minimal net debt in its operations. The business is subject to intense competition from Chinese/CIS suppliers, who ‘dump’ products in the domestic market below even material cost, as well as the unorganised sector supplying bearings of questionable quality. The business is also exposed to rising steel costs and is generally dependent on the fortunes of the auto and capital goods industry, whose sales largely depend on the interest rate cycle (impacting ease of loan financing for purchases) as well as oil prices (affecting autos). Moreover the company is a net importer and is therefore exposed to a weakening INR

Jocil is in the business of manufacturing fatty acids for toilet soap, toilet soap products (outsourced projects for branded soap manufacturers) and byproducts such as glycerine and industrial oxygen.  It also generates biomass and wind power for sale. Jocil has reported good growth in revenues in the last five years but operating profits don’t seem to have kept up.  It reported about 38cr of operating profits on revenues of about 380cr in the last financial year while employing only moderate leverage. The company appears to require heavy working capital investments and capital expenditure resulting in negative operating and free cash flows – thereby requiring additional debt financing for operations, which increases financial risk in case of a business slowdown. The business is subject to stiff competition, which is reflected in compressing margins despite sales growth in the last decade.  It is dependent on imported palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia exposing it to s

Jenburkt Pharma is in the business of manufacturing pharmaceutical formulations – in tablets, capsules, ointments etc. Its plant has been approved by 13 countries for distribution.  Its R&D focus is on lifestyle diseases including diabetes, inflammatory conditions, pain relief etc. Its objective is to create long term therapies in acute and chronic ailments. The company has reported modest growth in revenues and operating profits in the last five years – reporting about 10cr of operating profits on revenues of 56cr in the last financial year while employing no net debt to finance its operations. The business is subject to heavy regulatory norms.  It is dependent on its R&D to create new and better formulations to maintain competitiveness in an ever-evolving pharmaceutical industry.  Moreover, it is subject to high competition and pricing pressures in its generics segment.

Rasi Electrodes is in the business of manufacturing welding electrodes and trading in copper coated mild steel (CCMS) wires. The company has a reasonably good brand image in certain of its segments. The company has reported reasonable growth in revenues over the last five years but the operating profits have remained largely the same.  It reported about 2cr of operating profits on revenues of about 21cr in the last financial year while employing modest financial leverage. The business is exposed to rising steel and rutile prices.  It also incurs heavy working capital investments resulting in hits to its operating cash flows.  Moreover, it will require heavy capital expenditure in the future as a result of PSU customers requiring it to operate with more of its own manufacturing facilities.  This will result in lower free cash flows, at least over the next few years. It is a net importer and hence, exposed to a weakening INR.  Moreover, it is still trading CCMS wire an

Menon Pistons operates in the auto components industry by manufacturing pistons. The company has good market share in its industry segment with a prominent customer base such as Tata Motors, Eicher Motors, BEML, Maruti etc. The company has reported consistent growth in both revenues and operating profits in the last five years – reporting 17cr of operating profits on revenues of about 150cr in the last financial year.  It employed minimal financial leverage in accomplishing this performance. The business is primarily exposed to the risks of rises in prices of aluminium, steel, nickel, oil, lubricant etc. forming part of its input cost.  Since its fortunes are tied to the auto industry, it is indirectly subject to the risks impacting the industry such as high interest rates (for loan financing), oil prices etc. Although management does procure supplies from privately owned related parties, this does not appear to be significant - in relation to the size of the busin

Bliss GVS Pharma operates in the pharmaceutical industry and manufactures vaginal contraceptives, anti-malarial drugs, anal suppositories etc. The company is in expansion mode setting up local manufacturing units as well as abroad via joint ventures. The company has reported good growth in revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting about 60cr of operating profits on about 220cr of revenues in the last financial year.  It employed no net debt in accomplishing this performance. The company is a net exporter with lots of US$ and EUR receivables and is therefore, exposed to a strengthening INR.  Moreover, it provides products that those in need may be largely unaware of – and requires larger than usual educational campaigns.  It exports a substantial portion to African countries, which is subject to erratic regulations.  Furthermore, the company may not be able to avail of certain specific tax benefits that it used to enjoy in the past.

Marathon Nextgen is in the business of real estate construction and sale. This is an 80-year old company with 2 nd generation management and has four projects running currently with 125cr committed to one project.  The business model is largely focused on eventual sale of constructed properties. The company has reported somewhat erratic performance numbers as a result of its business model (see above). It reported 75cr of operating profits on total income of 130cr in the last financial year.  However, it employed only moderate debt to accomplish this. The business is highly competitive and is primarily exposed to the interest rate cycle where customers are unwilling to pay up in a high interest rate/high EMI environment resulting in a real lack of pricing power under tight money conditions.  The company was a BIFR case in 2003 as a result of unbearable debt burdens and accumulated losses.  This is a major adverse factor against management competence. In addition