Investing Reflections On India

Precision Wires manufactures copper winding wires for rotating and static electric equipment manufacturers used in the electric power generation industry. It is the market leader in India and is recognised for its product quality as evidenced by sales to OEMs constituting 90% of revenues. The company has reported reasonable growth in its operating profits and revenues – reporting 63cr of operating profits on revenues of 873cr in the last financial year.  It employed moderate debt to finance its operations in relation to its net current assets and book equity. The company is primarily exposed to copper price increases.  It is dependent on the fortunes of the power industry and is hence, at the mercy of government policies on resource allocation and reforms in the power sector apart from cyclical slowdowns marked by interest rate increases.  Further, it is exposed to intense competition from small scale companies.  Since it is a net importer, it suffers ...

Ponni Sugars operates in the sugar industry producing sugar from sugarcane. The company has access to relatively low cost cane supplies that provides it with some buffer during the industry’s persistent cyclical downturns. The company has reported moderate growth in revenues over the last five years but operating profits (and losses) have been erratic.  It reported 15cr of operating profits on revenues of about 270cr under depressed operating conditions (see below).  It operated with a moderate net debt load of about 15cr but this is set to increase substantially over the next few years (see below). The company intends to invest 110cr in increasing capacity via debt funding in 2012, which may increase its financial risk profile.   It also intends to invest heavily in a power co-generation project.  These additional capital expenditures will reduce free cash flows, at least over the medium term. The business is exposed to the myriad problems of...

Hyderabad Industries is in the business of manufacturing fibre cement sheets and thermal insulation materials. It owns the prominent ‘Charminar’ brand and is a market leader in its industry with 20%+ market share. The company has reported good growth in revenues in the last five years as a result of capacity additions but operating margins have taken a hit in the last year due to overcapacity in the industry (see below).  It reported 88cr of operating profits on 725cr of revenues in the last financial year.  The company employed only moderate debt in financing its operations despite the heavy capacity additions in the industry, which is a point in favour of the company’s strong cash flows and management competence. The business is exposed to the risk of substitutes becoming economically viable such as GI corrugated sheets (steel-based).  The business is dependent on rural spending power and there is little pricing power within the industry to pass on increa...

Premier Explosives manufactures industrial explosives, detonators and propellants (defence). The company supplies its products to all major mining companies and to the ministry of defence. The company has reported moderate growth in revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting 17cr of operating profits on revenues of 94cr in the last financial year.  It employed minimal net debt in its operations. The business prospects are tied to the fortunes of the mining/construction industries, which are subject to the economic cycles.  Moreover, long monsoons are adverse for detonator sales.  It is also subject to the risk of more stringent defence ministry requirements.  Management have written off 8cr on joint venture investments in Turkey and Georgia, which is a cause for concern – but there don’t appear to be other questionable investments at present.

Anjani Synthetics operated in the textile industry and is in the business of manufacturing printed fabrics. The company has reported growing operating profits on growing revenues over the last five years – reporting 14cr of operating profits on 280cr of revenues in the last financial year. It employed an uncomfortably high debt load in relation to accounting net worth as well as earnings.  Moreover, it has used up significant amounts of cash in aggregate over the last five years (both operationally and for capital expenditure) requiring substantial additional financing including a large equity raising exercise in 2007.  Perhaps management may be considered shrewd for raising equity cheaply during the 2007 bull market – but this didn’t really help the former minority shareholder. The business is exposed to the risk of rising prices of cloth (principal input) as well as adverse foreign exchange movements on its imports of colour and chemicals.  These are in addi...

Sri Lakshmi Saraswathi is in the business of manufacturing yarn used for making woven and knitted fabrics. The company has reported reasonable operating profitability (for a textile business) over the last five years including a spurt in recent performance with operating profits of 14cr on revenues of about 100cr.  It generated this performance, however, with slightly uncomfortable debt levels (though manageable if the recent performance continues) in relation to accounting net worth.  The business is exposed to myriad problems of rising cotton prices, heavy government regulations and frequent arbitrary intrusion through implementation of the ‘quota’ system for exports of yarn as well as cotton (raw material) impacting their prices (usually adversely), persistent oversupply of yarn capacity in Tamil Nadu as compared to fabric capacity (resulting in greater bargaining power for customers), power shortages, wage increases, foreign exchange rate risks on exports, e...

Sam Industries operates in three business segments i.e. Soy Products, Welding and Real Estate. It is a supplier of soy products including de-oiled cakes oil etc., welding products and invests in real estate ventures including housing construction and sale. The company has reported erratic revenues and profits over the last five years – reporting a net operating loss of 3cr on revenues of 24cr in the last financial year.  However, it had minimal net debt as at last financial year end. The soy business is exposed to the risks of fluctuating soy seed prices, which is dependent on monsoon conditions.  The welding business is exposed to the cyclical metal industries.  The real estate venture appears to indicate a lack of focus and is subject to the risks of interest rate cyclicality, high competition, execution delays etc. Management does not declare dividends despite lack of profitable growth in its core businesses.  Instead they have made unwarranted ...

National Steel is in the business of manufacturing steel sheets/coils/strips etc. The company has reported erratic operating profits on reasonably stable revenues – generating 134cr in operating profits on revenues of about 2,550cr in the last financial year while employing a relatively high net debt of about 265cr, considering the nature of its business. The business requires heavy working capital expenditure resulting in a heavy hit to operating cash flows and is exposed to the risks of import substitutes, heavy competition including from foreign players established in India, raw material price spikes, and sharp business cycles resulting in poor revenues and profits during recessionary times. Management have not declared any dividends in any of the last five years presumably as a result of the erratic profitability mentioned above.   This doesn’t appear to be initiated any time soon unless the business generates consistent profitability, which appears speculative a...

Prima Plastics is in the business of manufacturing Moulded Furniture and Aluminium Composite Panels.   It supplies usually to retail outlets.   It also owns a profitable joint venture in Cameroon. The company has reported reasonably consistent growth in revenues and operating profits over the last five years.   It reported almost 6cr in operating profits on revenues of almost 60cr in the last financial year while employing modest net debt of about 3cr. The business is exposed to high risk of poor performance in recessionary conditions.   It is also exposed to crude oil and aluminium price spikes, polypropylene (plastic) supplies - mainly dependent on Middle East capacity, heavy competition incl from China, price competition in low-value products, foreign exchange risks on imports as well as exports, etc. Management initiated dividends in FY’10 and continued it in FY’11.   Its continuance would appear to depend on the impact of business risks menti...

Tyroon tea company owns one tea plantation and processing facility for domestic sales – mainly supplying black tea. The company has reported consistent growth in revenues and profits over the last five years – generating about 4cr of operating profits on about 22cr of revenues in the last financial year while operating with minimal net debt of under 1.5cr (as at 31 st March, 2010). The business is monsoon dependent and also exposed to the risks of stubborn wage inflation (which is insensitive to economic reality) and cyclicality – dependent on supplies of Sri Lankan and Kenyan tea stocks. Management haven’t declared dividends in any of the last five years, which may be justified if management can maintain profitable growth over the long future.

Oriental Carbon is in the business of manufacturing and supplying Insoluble Sulphur to tyre companies (used to vulcanise rubber, particularly in radial tyres) - and Sulphuric Acid used in the manufacture of detergent and inorganic chemicals. The company has reported consistent growth in revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting almost 50cr of operating profits on revenues of about 160cr in the last financial year.   It operated with modest net debt of about 40cr. The business is exposed to the risks of Chinese competition, foreign exchange risks (imports and exports), international regulations (EU etc.), poor performance in recessionary conditions, sulphur price spikes (although margins are quite stable), etc.

JK Paper is in the business of manufacturing paper/paper boards. It holds a leading competitive position in the copier, coated and packaging board segments. The company has reported consistent growth in revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting 260cr in operating profits on revenues of about 1,400cr in the last financial year while operating with moderate net debt of about 500cr. The business is subject to the risks of wood and pulp availability as well as their price rises.  It is also exposed to the risks of cyclicality (periods of industry oversupply), Chinese dumping, poor infrastructure and therefore imports from nations with well-developed infrastructure, lack of corporate farming in the country, lack of experienced personnel, interest rate rises (affecting loan costs) and GST (tax) increases.

Vinati Organics is in the business of supplying chemicals – specifically it supplies IBB (intermediate) for manufacturing Ibuprofen and ATBS (monomers) used in oil-field recovery, water treatment, acrylics manufacturing etc. The company holds leading competitive positions in its industries – it’s the largest supplier of IBB in the world and second largest supplier of ATBS in the world. The company has reported consistent growth in revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting 64cr in operating profits on revenues of over 315cr in the last financial year while operating with modest net debt of about 75cr. The business is exposed to the risks of economic downturns, crude oil price declines, weakening of US$ and lack of skilled labour.

Goodricke Group is in the business of supplying premium and instant tea to domestic as well as export customers.  It owns 17 tea estates in 3 locations – Darjeeling, Assam and Dooars (North West Bengal). The company has reported consistent growth in revenues and profits over the last five years – reporting about 75cr in operating profits on revenues of over 400cr in the last financial year (ended 31 st December, 2010).  It operated with modest net debt of about 30cr as at 30 th June, 2011. The business is monsoon-dependent and cyclical – based on supplies of tea stocks in Sri Lanka as well as Kenya.  It is also subject to price competition for lower quality teas and faces increasing competition in packet teas.

Enkei Castalloy is in the business of supplying aluminium castings to the auto industry and also to the agriculture, locomotive and other capital equipment industries. The company has reported reasonably stable operating profits on somewhat stable revenues on a standalone basis – reporting 37cr of operating profits on 257cr of revenues in the last financial year and about 40cr and 350cr respectively on a consolidated basis.   It may be relevant note, however, that net profits (standalone) have been somewhat erratic presumably due to unsound financial policies on borrowing in the past.   It currently operates with a somewhat reasonable net debt load of 74cr (consolidated) as at 31 st March, 2011. The business requires heavy investments in working capital hitting operating cash flow generation.   It is subject to the risks of aluminium price spikes, crude oil price rises and road development progress (affecting autos), heavy competition from Chinese manufacturer...

Indian Acrylics is in the business of supplying acrylic fibre. The company has reported somewhat erratic profits on reasonably stable revenues including losses in 2009.   It reported about 56cr of operating profits on revenues of about 410 crores in the last financial year and operated with moderate net debt of about 80cr. The company was forced to restructure its external loans as a result of heavy losses during the recession implying a lack of strength during hard times.   It is a cyclical business exposed to risks of foreign dumping, Acrylonitrite (raw material) price spikes – which is dependent on crude oil prices, technological obsolescence of existing machinery etc.   Management have also diverted its attention to non-core ventures such as power generation, carbon credits etc. – in which it doesn’t appear to have demonstrable business experience.   Their lack of stewardship towards minority shareholders is confirmed with the lack of dividends in ...

PG Foils is in the business of manufacturing aluminium foils and supplying to the retail and pharmaceutical sectors for packaging as well as long shelf-life benefits. The company has reported reasonably stable revenues and operating profits over the last four years – generating about 14cr in operating profits on revenues of about 140cr. It employed negligible net debt as at 31 st March, 2010. The business is exposed to the risks of aluminium price spikes, cyclicality (incl periods of excess capacity) and adverse movements on currency rates. Management appears to employ a niggardly policy towards declaring dividends considering the amount of net profits it generates - presumably for retaining profits for business expansion.  The problem, however, is that management have not employed capital efficiently in the last few years as reflected in poor profitability ratios – shareholders ought to demand an accounting by management for this inefficiency with their money and o...

Rathi Bars is in the business of manufacturing CTD/TMT steel bars and ingots/billets. The company hasn’t reported any significant growth in revenues over the last five years but reported reasonably stable operating profits considering the cyclical nature of its industry.   It reported operating profits of about 11cr on revenues of around 210cr. The business, however, generates weak cash flows from operations as a result of high investment in its working capital. The business is subject to price rises in sponge iron – its main raw material.   It is also dependent on steel industry cyclicality marked by periods of oversupply that has a negative impact on its profits. Management hasn’t declared dividends in any of the last five years presumably to ‘conserve resources’ – this policy appears inappropriate for a company that isn’t deploying funds for profitable growth.

Sujana Universal is in the business of manufacturing steel castings, bearings, appliances etc. with other divisions operating in the fields of infrastructure, share trading and other activities. The company has shown high growth in revenues, which haven’t translated to similar increases in operating profits.   It reported 70cr of operating profits on revenues of about 3000cr in the twelve months ending 31 st March, 2011.   It operated with a relatively high net debt of about 200cr. The business, however, generates weak operating cash flows as a result of heavy investment in its working capital. The primary risk with this business is the lack of focus in its business activities – with management time devoted to activities seemingly unrelated to their primary business (steel castings) such as real-estate, share trading etc. and a host of unquoted subsidiaries engaged in unknown activities.   In its steel castings business, it is blighted by the cyclicality of the in...

APM Industries is in the business of producing spun yarn fibre – it is primarily an exporter of man-made spun yarn fibre. The company hasn’t shown spectacular growth in revenues over the last five years but has reasonable operating profitability given the industry it operates in.  It reported 30cr in operating profits on 240cr of revenues in the last financial year.  It operated with a reasonably high debt load of 60cr, which would sensitise its net profitability in the event of high interest rates (as we have now) and during industry/economic downturns. It is exposed to the persistent cyclicality in the textile industry marked by consistent oversupply.  Moreover, it is operating in a highly capital intensive industry and heavily subject to government regulations on imports/exports/duties/taxes etc.  It is also exposed to crude oil price spikes (impacting synthetic rubber used in man-made fibre), adverse foreign exchange movements (export-driven revenues), and a s...