Investing Reflections On India

Precision Pipes is in the business of manufacturing PVC Profiles and Extrusions for the auto and white goods (refrigerators) industries with autos being the dominant segment (90% of revenues) by far. The company has a prominent customer base including the likes of Maruti, Tata, GM, Toyota etc.  Its white goods customers include the likes of Voltas, Godrej, Videocon etc.  It primarily operates with a cost advantage to global peers and a technological edge to domestic competitors.  It has a technical collaboration with two Japanese companies.  The industry is set to grow at 10%+ over the next decade. The company reported consistent growth in revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting over 50cr in operating profits on revenues of over 200cr in the last financial year.  It used no net debt (as at 30 th September, 2011) to finance its operations. It is primarily dependent on PVC prices, which is dependent on crude oil prices a...

Torrent Cables is in the business of manufacturing power cables, insulated cables etc.  Specifically, it manufactures XLPE and PVC cables.  The company has reported fluctuating profits on revenue levels of about 200cr – reporting 11cr in operating profits on revenues of over 250cr in the last financial year.  It employed minimal net debt to finance its operations as at 30 th September, 2011. The business is exposed to the risks of price increases in its major inputs such as aluminium, copper and PVC compounds etc. Further, the nature of business is such that contracts are negotiated on a fixed price basis and tenders generally take a while to get finalised, which exposes the company to risks of intervening input price increases.  The business is also exposed to INR depreciation resulting in increased import costs.  Of course, the business could hedge against commodity and currency risks, but these are fraught with the risks of opportunity costs as we...

Precision Wires manufactures copper winding wires for rotating and static electric equipment manufacturers used in the electric power generation industry. It is the market leader in India and is recognised for its product quality as evidenced by sales to OEMs constituting 90% of revenues. The company has reported reasonable growth in its operating profits and revenues – reporting 63cr of operating profits on revenues of 873cr in the last financial year.  It employed moderate debt to finance its operations in relation to its net current assets and book equity. The company is primarily exposed to copper price increases.  It is dependent on the fortunes of the power industry and is hence, at the mercy of government policies on resource allocation and reforms in the power sector apart from cyclical slowdowns marked by interest rate increases.  Further, it is exposed to intense competition from small scale companies.  Since it is a net importer, it suffers ...

Hind Rectifiers manufactures rectifiers and converter/inverter equipment for the power electronics and power conversion industry. The company is a leader in several of its market segments.  It has a prominent customer base including Indian Railways and other multinational companies located in several countries including those in Europe.   It also carries out trading activities in semi-conductor devices and capacitors amounting to less than 10% of total revenues. The company has reported reasonably stable operating profits on similar revenues over the last five years – reporting about 15cr of operating profits on revenues of over 100cr in the last financial year.  It employed minimal net debt in financing its operations as at 30 th September, 2011. The primary risk pertains to a concentration of sales to the Indian Railways.  Although a large, stable and prominent customer, revenues would decline substantially if it were to lose this customer for ...

Ponni Sugars operates in the sugar industry producing sugar from sugarcane. The company has access to relatively low cost cane supplies that provides it with some buffer during the industry’s persistent cyclical downturns. The company has reported moderate growth in revenues over the last five years but operating profits (and losses) have been erratic.  It reported 15cr of operating profits on revenues of about 270cr under depressed operating conditions (see below).  It operated with a moderate net debt load of about 15cr but this is set to increase substantially over the next few years (see below). The company intends to invest 110cr in increasing capacity via debt funding in 2012, which may increase its financial risk profile.   It also intends to invest heavily in a power co-generation project.  These additional capital expenditures will reduce free cash flows, at least over the medium term. The business is exposed to the myriad problems of...

The company operates in the textile industry – processing and selling fabrics.  It focuses on heritage and craft fabrics and uses dyes/plain fabrics to create printed fabrics.  The company has reported very modest growth in revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting 4cr of operating profits on revenues of 36cr in the last financial year. It employed no net debt in financing its operations and held about 9cr in liquid investments, primarily in equity mutual funds. The industry is blighted by government policies that work against domestic players such as propping up of ‘zombie’ units (to preserve employment) and export restrictions on cotton yarn and other related products.  The company is forced to import fabrics due to the lack of domestic supplies, resulting in exposure to a weakening INR.  Moreover, the US and Europe account for over 60% of Indian textile exports, resulting in substantial diminution in the industry’s overall ...

ABC Bearings operates in the automobile industry and manufactures ball and roller bearings. It has a technical collaboration with NSK Japan in manufacturing its products. The company has reported stable revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting 42cr of operating profits on revenues of 200cr in the last financial year.  It employed minimal net debt in its operations. The business is subject to intense competition from Chinese/CIS suppliers, who ‘dump’ products in the domestic market below even material cost, as well as the unorganised sector supplying bearings of questionable quality. The business is also exposed to rising steel costs and is generally dependent on the fortunes of the auto and capital goods industry, whose sales largely depend on the interest rate cycle (impacting ease of loan financing for purchases) as well as oil prices (affecting autos). Moreover the company is a net importer and is therefore exposed to a weakening...

Jocil is in the business of manufacturing fatty acids for toilet soap, toilet soap products (outsourced projects for branded soap manufacturers) and byproducts such as glycerine and industrial oxygen.  It also generates biomass and wind power for sale. Jocil has reported good growth in revenues in the last five years but operating profits don’t seem to have kept up.  It reported about 38cr of operating profits on revenues of about 380cr in the last financial year while employing only moderate leverage. The company appears to require heavy working capital investments and capital expenditure resulting in negative operating and free cash flows – thereby requiring additional debt financing for operations, which increases financial risk in case of a business slowdown. The business is subject to stiff competition, which is reflected in compressing margins despite sales growth in the last decade.  It is dependent on imported palm oil from Indonesia and Malaysia ex...

Rasi Electrodes is in the business of manufacturing welding electrodes and trading in copper coated mild steel (CCMS) wires. The company has a reasonably good brand image in certain of its segments. The company has reported reasonable growth in revenues over the last five years but the operating profits have remained largely the same.  It reported about 2cr of operating profits on revenues of about 21cr in the last financial year while employing modest financial leverage. The business is exposed to rising steel and rutile prices.  It also incurs heavy working capital investments resulting in hits to its operating cash flows.  Moreover, it will require heavy capital expenditure in the future as a result of PSU customers requiring it to operate with more of its own manufacturing facilities.  This will result in lower free cash flows, at least over the next few years. It is a net importer and hence, exposed to a weakening INR.  Moreover, it is st...

Kulkarni Power Tools is in the business of manufacturing power tools for the housing, infrastructure and industrial sectors. The company reported growing revenues in the last five years but the operating profits don’t seem to have kept up – indicating declining operating margins.  It reported about 12cr in operating profits on revenues of about 90cr.  However, it employed an uncomfortably high debt load to accomplish this performance thereby increasing the financial risk in case of a business slowdown. The business is exposed to iron and steel price increases (raw materials) as well as the housing/construction cycles.  It is also vulnerable to a weakening INR since it’s a net importer and its high debt level (apart from its customer profile) exposes it to the risk of rising interest rates. Management don’t appear to have discussed the risks in this business fully or intelligently – management reluctance to honestly discuss their views of the business (risks as...

Anjani Synthetics operated in the textile industry and is in the business of manufacturing printed fabrics. The company has reported growing operating profits on growing revenues over the last five years – reporting 14cr of operating profits on 280cr of revenues in the last financial year. It employed an uncomfortably high debt load in relation to accounting net worth as well as earnings.  Moreover, it has used up significant amounts of cash in aggregate over the last five years (both operationally and for capital expenditure) requiring substantial additional financing including a large equity raising exercise in 2007.  Perhaps management may be considered shrewd for raising equity cheaply during the 2007 bull market – but this didn’t really help the former minority shareholder. The business is exposed to the risk of rising prices of cloth (principal input) as well as adverse foreign exchange movements on its imports of colour and chemicals.  These are in addi...

Super Sales is in the business of of manufacturing and supplying cotton yarn, textile and CNC machines via direct marketing.   The company has reported reasonable growth in revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting 50cr of operating profits on revenues of about 180cr in the last financial year.   However, it operated with a relatively high debt load of 100cr when considering the nature of its business. The business’ fortunes are tied with the user industries.   Therefore, it is exposed to the risks of cotton price spikes, labour shortage, foreign exchange risks, government policies on imports/exports/subsidies etc.   It is also exposed to heavy domestic and international competition and to frequent power shortages.

Vinyl Chemicals is in the business of trading Vinyl Acetate Monomer. The company has reported erratic revenues and profits over the last five years although revenues haven’t declined materially from levels seen five years ago.   It reported marginal profits of 5 lacs on revenues of 152 crores in the last financial year and operated with no net debts as at 31 st March, 2011. The business is subject to volatile price fluctuations in the product as well as adverse foreign exchange rate movements in its import activities.   The company doesn’t own value-generating assets (e.g. manufacturing facilities etc.) and hence, has limited barriers to the entry of new traders in its product. Management started declaring dividends in 2010 but it is to be seen whether they can maintain this during times of business downturns.

Investors around the world were greeted today with larger-than-usual headline news about S&P’s downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating from its gold-standard ‘AAA’ status to ‘AA+’. Although the fundamental drivers of this decision have been in play for a while now, the S&P report does serve as a trigger to contemplate the implications for Indian business and financial markets in general. The factors driving the decline in value of the US$ were accelerated when the QE programs were initiated by the US Federal Reserve as a response to the economic crisis of 2008.  This downgrade may further speed up the process as capital is pulled out of US Treasuries and perhaps, the US altogether.  This would result in wholesale selling of US$ and declines in its exchange rates. Let’s think about some of the longer-term implications for India: BUSINESS IMPLICATIONS The implications mentioned below are likely to play out IF the US$ weakens substantially relative to the INR (a...

Ecoplast is in the business of manufacturing and supplying co-extruded packaging film, which is apparently a higher value-added packaging film. The company has reported growth in revenues and profits over the last five years.   It reported operating profits of about 6.6cr on revenues of 66cr in the last financial year.   It operated with a modest net debt of about 8cr. The business is exposed to rises in its raw material prices (poly-ethylene – petroleum based).   It is also subject to risks of increased competition as a result of low barriers to entry in this industry and adverse foreign exchange movements on purchase since it imports a large proportion of its raw materials.

Gulshan Polyols is in the business of manufacturing Sorbitol and Calcium Carbonate for supplies to the toothpaste, pharmaceutical, paper and paints industries. The company has shown consistent growth in revenues and profits over the last five years – reporting 35cr of operating profits on 275cr of revenues in the last financial year.  It operated with modest debt of 35cr (as at 31 st March, 2011). Its Sorbitol product is exposed to the vagaries of the monsoon since a primary input is corn, which may also be used for alternative uses (such as ethanol etc.).  It is also exposed to the risk of cheap imports (and related government policies) and substitute products for the same applications. 

IG Petrochemicals is in the business of manufacturing Phthalic Anhydride – used as a petrochemical in manufacturing paints. It supplies the product to leading paint companies including the likes of Nerolac. The company hasn’t really grown its revenues and profits over the last four years – reporting about 45cr of operating profits on 630cr of revenues in the last financial year.  It operated with modest net debt of about 45cr (as at 30 th September, 2010). The business is subject to several risks including crude oil price rises, adverse foreign exchange movements on raw material supplies, import competition via lax government regulation, cyclicality – business fluctuates with the construction cycle etc.  Moreover, there were plant fires in the recent past calling into question the safety regulations in place at the plant. Management haven’t declared a dividend in the last three years, which is inexplicable since it doesn’t appear to be deploying funds for profitable grow...

Excel Crop Care is in the business of manufacturing agrochemicals. It is a leading producer with established brands. It is constantly developing new products and tapping export markets to grow its revenues. The company has shown reasonably good growth in revenues and profits over the last five years – reporting about 90cr in operating profits on 700cr of revenues in the last financial year.  It operates with modest leverage of about 115cr. The business is exposed to several risks including climate dependence, brand counterfeiting, import competition, negative public relations on agrochemicals, cyclicality of raw material supplies, adverse regulations in export markets.  It is also operating in an industry that is growing at a pace slower than real GDP.