Investing Reflections On India

Marathon Nextgen is in the business of real estate construction and sale. This is an 80-year old company with 2 nd generation management and has four projects running currently with 125cr committed to one project.  The business model is largely focused on eventual sale of constructed properties. The company has reported somewhat erratic performance numbers as a result of its business model (see above). It reported 75cr of operating profits on total income of 130cr in the last financial year.  However, it employed only moderate debt to accomplish this. The business is highly competitive and is primarily exposed to the interest rate cycle where customers are unwilling to pay up in a high interest rate/high EMI environment resulting in a real lack of pricing power under tight money conditions.  The company was a BIFR case in 2003 as a result of unbearable debt burdens and accumulated losses.  This is a major adverse factor against management competen...

Inducto Steel is in the business of shipbreaking and selling scrap iron and steel. The company has reported erratic profitability over the last year including a spurt in revenues in the last financial year – reporting about 1cr of operating profits on revenues of 64cr. It operated with high levels of debt in relation to accounting net worth and earnings and used up significant cash in operations requiring large equity financing in 2007-08 (diluting former minority shareholders) and debt financing (increasing financial risk). The business is primarily dependent on the supply (and prices) of old ships and selling prices for iron and steel.  Both these factors are influenced by international market conditions – with shipping having more pronounced and persistent cycles.  Management are also engaged in real estate activities through joint ventures/partnerships as well as lending activities to other corporate entities.  There is no reason to believe they have an...

Sam Industries operates in three business segments i.e. Soy Products, Welding and Real Estate. It is a supplier of soy products including de-oiled cakes oil etc., welding products and invests in real estate ventures including housing construction and sale. The company has reported erratic revenues and profits over the last five years – reporting a net operating loss of 3cr on revenues of 24cr in the last financial year.  However, it had minimal net debt as at last financial year end. The soy business is exposed to the risks of fluctuating soy seed prices, which is dependent on monsoon conditions.  The welding business is exposed to the cyclical metal industries.  The real estate venture appears to indicate a lack of focus and is subject to the risks of interest rate cyclicality, high competition, execution delays etc. Management does not declare dividends despite lack of profitable growth in its core businesses.  Instead they have made unwarranted ...

National Steel is in the business of manufacturing steel sheets/coils/strips etc. The company has reported erratic operating profits on reasonably stable revenues – generating 134cr in operating profits on revenues of about 2,550cr in the last financial year while employing a relatively high net debt of about 265cr, considering the nature of its business. The business requires heavy working capital expenditure resulting in a heavy hit to operating cash flows and is exposed to the risks of import substitutes, heavy competition including from foreign players established in India, raw material price spikes, and sharp business cycles resulting in poor revenues and profits during recessionary times. Management have not declared any dividends in any of the last five years presumably as a result of the erratic profitability mentioned above.   This doesn’t appear to be initiated any time soon unless the business generates consistent profitability, which appears speculative a...

Digjam is in the business of manufacturing of Worsted Fabrics and clothes made from wool. The company has reported erratic revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting about 8cr of operating profits on revenues of about 80cr.   However, it operated with a high debt load of about 70cr and has only a marginal net worth as a result of substantial negative reserves. The company is a former BIFR case where its external loans were restructured as a result of financial difficulties and heavy losses.   It is exposed to wool price spikes (imported from Australia) and also to adverse currency exchange rate movements since about 50% of its revenues arise out of exports.   As a result of the dismal financial position and past financial performance, management haven’t declared dividends in any of the past five years and don’t seem likely to initiate them any time soon unless the financial performance improves drastically from here – however, this ...

Enkei Castalloy is in the business of supplying aluminium castings to the auto industry and also to the agriculture, locomotive and other capital equipment industries. The company has reported reasonably stable operating profits on somewhat stable revenues on a standalone basis – reporting 37cr of operating profits on 257cr of revenues in the last financial year and about 40cr and 350cr respectively on a consolidated basis.   It may be relevant note, however, that net profits (standalone) have been somewhat erratic presumably due to unsound financial policies on borrowing in the past.   It currently operates with a somewhat reasonable net debt load of 74cr (consolidated) as at 31 st March, 2011. The business requires heavy investments in working capital hitting operating cash flow generation.   It is subject to the risks of aluminium price spikes, crude oil price rises and road development progress (affecting autos), heavy competition from Chinese manufacturer...

Indian Acrylics is in the business of supplying acrylic fibre. The company has reported somewhat erratic profits on reasonably stable revenues including losses in 2009.   It reported about 56cr of operating profits on revenues of about 410 crores in the last financial year and operated with moderate net debt of about 80cr. The company was forced to restructure its external loans as a result of heavy losses during the recession implying a lack of strength during hard times.   It is a cyclical business exposed to risks of foreign dumping, Acrylonitrite (raw material) price spikes – which is dependent on crude oil prices, technological obsolescence of existing machinery etc.   Management have also diverted its attention to non-core ventures such as power generation, carbon credits etc. – in which it doesn’t appear to have demonstrable business experience.   Their lack of stewardship towards minority shareholders is confirmed with the lack of dividends in ...

Rubfila is in the business of manufacturing and supplying heat resistant thread rubber, which is used in basic products such as diapers, socks, fishing, food, furniture, catheters, hosiery, toys etc. The company had reported erratic financial performance prior to 2008.   It’s reported high growth in revenues and profits since then – generating about 4cr in operating profits on about 80cr of revenues.   It’s last reported financial position (as at 31 st March, 2010), however, is a complete disaster – with negative equity and about 23cr in net borrowings. It’s net worth had turned negative in the past as a result of operating losses and was referred to the BIFR.   It’s business is subject to the risks of rubber price spikes, cheap imports, better credit terms by competitors etc.   It’s operations are located in the state of Kerala, which is plagued by frequent labour disputes, strikes etc., which poses a long-term risk to profitable business operations. ...

ANS operates in the food processing industry.   It is a supplier of frozen foods including vegetables, fruits etc. The company has reported erratic revenues and profits over the last four years – reporting marginal net profits of 86 lacs on revenues of 2 crores in the last financial year (31 st March 2011).   It operated with no debt as at 31 st March, 2010. The business is subject to fluctuating monsoon conditions and agricultural prices.   It uses third party facilities for storage and hence, exposed to storage risks outside their control (e.g. insufficient security, theft, damage etc.). It is exposed to Chinese competition in this business.   Moreover, it is subject to government regulations on food pricing and import duties etc. Management have not declared any dividends in the last five years – presumably as a result of its volatile performance.

Vinyl Chemicals is in the business of trading Vinyl Acetate Monomer. The company has reported erratic revenues and profits over the last five years although revenues haven’t declined materially from levels seen five years ago.   It reported marginal profits of 5 lacs on revenues of 152 crores in the last financial year and operated with no net debts as at 31 st March, 2011. The business is subject to volatile price fluctuations in the product as well as adverse foreign exchange rate movements in its import activities.   The company doesn’t own value-generating assets (e.g. manufacturing facilities etc.) and hence, has limited barriers to the entry of new traders in its product. Management started declaring dividends in 2010 but it is to be seen whether they can maintain this during times of business downturns.

Flawless Diamonds is in the business of exporting cut and polished diamonds to the US, China, UAE and other countries. The company has not reported significant revenue growth in the last five years and operating profits have been somewhat erratic.   It reported 6cr of operating profits on revenues of about 400cr in the last financial year.   It operated with a relatively high debt load of about 60cr (as at 31 st March, 2010). It is exposed to demand drops during economic downturns due to the discretionary nature of its products, adverse foreign exchange movements impacting its export revenues, interest rate risks impacting its debts and other related risks. Management haven’t declared dividends since the 2008 financial crisis and appear unlikely to reinstate them in the near future due to recent quarterly losses.