Investing Reflections On India

Empee Distilleries is in the alcohol business – producing ‘Indian Manufactured Foreign Liquor’ (IMFL).  The company operates in the premium segment with relatively high operating margins. The company reported reasonable growth in revenues and profits over the last five years – reporting about 40cr in operating profits on revenues of about 600cr in the last financial year.  It employed moderate debt in relation to its book equity. The company, however, has used up cash in the aggregate over the last five years resulting in the requirement for additional financing over that period. The primary issue adversely affecting this business is pervasive government control.  The government authorities in the states, where the company operates, have monopoly control over alcohol distribution allowing them to dictate prices to the company.  The state governments also control aspects of manufacturing, storage, distribution, brand approval, excise and import duties, ...

Indo Asian Fusegear sold its switchgear business to Legrand France last year.  It now plans to deploy the proceeds into the power generation business and has renamed itself ‘Eon Electric’.  The rest of the operating segments are related to power generation i.e. cables, wiring, lighting, energy metres etc.  These segments comprise about 1/3 rd the size of the business before the sale. The sale of a substantial portion of its former business makes past performance irrelevant.  The company had about 290cr of liquid assets (as at 30 th September, 2011) at its disposal for its new venture(s). Management has no track record in the business they have committed to invest the funds in, thereby increasing the risk of loss.  The power sector is plagued by SEB insolvencies, government dictated tariffs, high debt burdens and overcapacity.   Although this does not preclude management from making a good deal with the cash resources, the lack of an es...

Precision Pipes is in the business of manufacturing PVC Profiles and Extrusions for the auto and white goods (refrigerators) industries with autos being the dominant segment (90% of revenues) by far. The company has a prominent customer base including the likes of Maruti, Tata, GM, Toyota etc.  Its white goods customers include the likes of Voltas, Godrej, Videocon etc.  It primarily operates with a cost advantage to global peers and a technological edge to domestic competitors.  It has a technical collaboration with two Japanese companies.  The industry is set to grow at 10%+ over the next decade. The company reported consistent growth in revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting over 50cr in operating profits on revenues of over 200cr in the last financial year.  It used no net debt (as at 30 th September, 2011) to finance its operations. It is primarily dependent on PVC prices, which is dependent on crude oil prices a...

Jayabharat Credit is a non-banking finance company (NBFC) in the hire purchase/leasing business in the transport segment. It is allowed to accept public deposits in its business. The balance sheet is financed with approximately 30% equity and 70% debt of which, half consists of short-term funding and balance consists of inter-corporate deposits.  This was used to finance loans and advances of about 57cr (constituting net current assets of 13cr) and government securities of about 5cr as at 31 st March, 2011. The debt was rated ‘C’ by a reputed credit rating agency and hence, is now required by the RBI to reduce the level of public deposits from the 19cr (as at 31 st March, 2011) to under 10cr, thereby requiring a material reduction in business activities, which will reduce expectable future profits.  This is already reflected in a drop in income from about 10cr to 6cr (in the trailing twelve months) and net losses in place of profits in the past. The busine...

Flex foods is in the business of producing packaged food – primarily mushrooms but also herbs, vegetables, fruits in frozen, processed, air-dried and similar formats.  The industry is expected to grow at 10%-15% p.a. over the next five years or so. The company has reported fluctuating operating profits on reasonably stable revenues – reporting 5cr of operating profits on revenues of 44cr in the last financial year.  It employed minimal net debt to finance its operations. The business is primarily exposed to rainfall patterns impacting vegetable prices – herbs, straw etc.  It is also exposed to risks of intense Chinese competition in this area, high power tariffs set by the government, political/economic stability of countries exported to, INR appreciation impacting its export revenues. Management has also made loans to several companies, which appears a little out of whack considering the nature of the company’s business.

Torrent Cables is in the business of manufacturing power cables, insulated cables etc.  Specifically, it manufactures XLPE and PVC cables.  The company has reported fluctuating profits on revenue levels of about 200cr – reporting 11cr in operating profits on revenues of over 250cr in the last financial year.  It employed minimal net debt to finance its operations as at 30 th September, 2011. The business is exposed to the risks of price increases in its major inputs such as aluminium, copper and PVC compounds etc. Further, the nature of business is such that contracts are negotiated on a fixed price basis and tenders generally take a while to get finalised, which exposes the company to risks of intervening input price increases.  The business is also exposed to INR depreciation resulting in increased import costs.  Of course, the business could hedge against commodity and currency risks, but these are fraught with the risks of opportunity costs as we...

BGR Energy operates in the power and capital goods segments and is in the business of constructing boilers, turbines and generators for coal-based thermal power plants.  It currently has about 7 or 8 major power projects running including overseas projects.  It executes major contracts for companies, PSUs and government agencies.  The company reported rapid growth in revenues and profits over the last five years – reporting about 540cr of operating profits on revenues of about 4,800cr.  It operated with a slightly uncomfortable net debt ratio, with net debt exceeding book equity (as at 30 th September, 2011) – presumably as a result of the current distress in the power sector (discussed below). The business suffers from issues relating to coal availability, environmental concerns impeding construction activities and State Electricity Board (SEB) insolvencies.  It is dependent on government-set power tariffs.  Since its work is project-ba...

MRO Tek operates in the computer hardware industry within the networking and communications segment.  It manufactures digital modems and converters and aims to cater to 3g/broadband demand. The company has reported a consistent decline in revenues and operating profits over the last five years, representing a decline in competitiveness – it reported operating losses on revenues of about 25cr in the last financial year.  However, it had a net cash position of about 16cr as at 30 th September, 2011. The business operates in a fast-changing field where new technology renders business models obsolete.  This, perhaps, is the reason for the company’s massive revenue decline.  It is also exposed to the risks of delayed launches and large gestation periods of own products, which could be lethal in such a dynamic industry.

HB Estate Developers operates in the real estate industry – constructing hotels, shopping malls and residential properties; and renting commercial space. It is currently involved in hotel construction for Taj Vivanta in Gurgaon.  It also has a 57% interest in a real estate project with Parsvanth Developers costing about 30cr.  The project is currently loss making but is backed by equivalent net assets. Since the company is primarily an investment company, the balance sheet would be more significant to understanding the financial aspects of its operations than the income statement.  The company had over 300cr invested in its main project.  It financed this with 240cr of external debt net of 24cr in cash and liquid assets as at the end of the last financial year. The construction business is subject to the risk of rising material costs (steel, cement etc.).  It is also adversely impacted by crude oil price rises, which impact hotels’ tourism revenue...

Dynemic Products is in the business of manufacturing food colours and dyes and intermediates.  Its products are manufactured for industrial use in the food, pharmaceutical, drinks, cosmetics and similar industries.  The company has reported consistent growth in revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting about 10cr in operating profits on revenues of about 64cr in the last financial year.  It employed moderate debt of about 17cr in relation to its net current assets and book equity to finance its operations. Management hasn’t discussed risks impacting their business in any intelligent manner.  It is exposed to INR appreciation since it is a net exporter.  Management has made several private company investments including loans to overseas companies, real estate investments etc. – leading to obvious questions on appropriateness and fidelity towards minority shareholders.

Rajkumar Forge is in the business of manufacturing forgings for heavy engineering and machine building industries. 90% of its revenue consists of exports. The company reported stable revenues and operating profits over the last five years – reporting over 4cr in operating profits on revenues of about 33cr.  It had net debt of about 17cr as at 30 th September, 2011, which appeared to be amply backed up by its net current assets and book equity. The company had negative reserves until 2007 as a result of past losses.  The business is primarily exposed to increases in steel prices, its primary raw material.  It is also exposed to INR appreciation as a result of its large proportion of export revenues.  

Gowra Leasing is a 19-year old NBFC providing largely secured lending to the private sector.  It is classified as a ‘loan’ company under RBI regulations and not allowed to accept public deposits for financing. The company had 12cr in loans and advances as at 30 th September, 2011 and net current assets of about 10cr.  It had practically no net debt as at that date to finance its operations.  The company reported steady growth in income and profits – reporting about 2.5cr of pre-tax profits on income of 3.4cr in the last financial year and took a slight dip on both aspects in the six months to 30 th September, 2011. The business is exposed to general risks of non-performing assets, interest rate hikes, intense competition etc.

Alka Securities operates in the brokerage business – offering brokerage services and trading in commodities and stocks.  Its balance sheet revealed about 10cr in working capital and 4-5cr of liquid investments financed by 5cr of loans. The company currently has investigations initiated against it by SEBI on allegations of circular trading in shares in 2009, which is pending resolution.  Meanwhile, the company is barred from accessing capital markets, approaching new customers and raising new finance.  The company has lost its existing clients through a period of low retail client participation and the brokerage revenue has shown a consistent decline over the recent past – with no revenue and net losses in the latest quarter (Sep, 2011). Although the company claims innocence, the investigation may be protracted over an extended time period and even a favourable judgment wouldn’t guarantee a restoration of former profits.  Moreover, its trading activitie...

Precision Wires manufactures copper winding wires for rotating and static electric equipment manufacturers used in the electric power generation industry. It is the market leader in India and is recognised for its product quality as evidenced by sales to OEMs constituting 90% of revenues. The company has reported reasonable growth in its operating profits and revenues – reporting 63cr of operating profits on revenues of 873cr in the last financial year.  It employed moderate debt to finance its operations in relation to its net current assets and book equity. The company is primarily exposed to copper price increases.  It is dependent on the fortunes of the power industry and is hence, at the mercy of government policies on resource allocation and reforms in the power sector apart from cyclical slowdowns marked by interest rate increases.  Further, it is exposed to intense competition from small scale companies.  Since it is a net importer, it suffers ...

Hind Rectifiers manufactures rectifiers and converter/inverter equipment for the power electronics and power conversion industry. The company is a leader in several of its market segments.  It has a prominent customer base including Indian Railways and other multinational companies located in several countries including those in Europe.   It also carries out trading activities in semi-conductor devices and capacitors amounting to less than 10% of total revenues. The company has reported reasonably stable operating profits on similar revenues over the last five years – reporting about 15cr of operating profits on revenues of over 100cr in the last financial year.  It employed minimal net debt in financing its operations as at 30 th September, 2011. The primary risk pertains to a concentration of sales to the Indian Railways.  Although a large, stable and prominent customer, revenues would decline substantially if it were to lose this customer for ...